Research Monograph

The Modeling of Systems and Macro-Systemic Change: Lessons for Evaluation from Epidemiology and Ecology

James Ridgway

Abstract

The paper begins with a discussion of the roles of science in the political world and, borrowing from Shakley and Wynne (1996), describes some different relationships which can exist between science and policy. It argues that education systemic reform (ESR) constitutes a novel approach to educational reform, about which little is known, and about which much is yet to be discovered. ESR requires "abracadabra" science, in the language of Shakley and Wynne. To be consistent with the philosophy of ESR, the evaluation of ESR must be an evaluation of systems undergoing change, and so evaluation itself also requires a good deal of abracadabra science.

The paper describes three styles of modeling in science: analytic, exemplified by eighteenth century physics; systemic, exemplified by biology; and macro-systemic, exemplified by studies of ecologies undergoing change. Each modeling style depends on and incorporates its predecessor. The dominant intellectual traditions in education have been analytic, rather than systemic. The emergence of systemic reform as a paradigm for educational change has created a need for approaches to educational evaluation that set out to judge the functioning of systems; this will require attention to major system phases--the evaluation of plans about some new system, the evaluation of the implementation of the plans, and the provision of summative feedback about its success or otherwise. However, systemic reform requires more than just an understanding of systems; rather it requires an understanding of systems undergoing change. It follows that the evaluation of education systemic reform then is more a kind of macro-systemic model than a systemic model as drawn from science. Several disciplines outside education have systemic and macro-systemic approaches as their dominant intellectual traditions. This monograph considers the approaches taken to evaluation and inquiry in some of these disciplines, notably epidemiology and ecology, and the central roles that evaluation plays in planning and monitoring change.

From a description of the methods used in other disciplines, a specification of the evidence base needed to conduct evaluations of ESR is derived. Attention is given to some of the research styles from a number of different academic disciplines (including physics and earth sciences) that face the same problems as those faced by the education in terms of handling complexity. Some ideas on data gathering, modeling, and strategies for further research into educational evaluation are presented.

The monograph points out the importance of making full use of existing knowledge and the knowledge that the evaluation community is rapidly creating. It endorses arguments made by Wilson (1994) and Scriven (1993) that there is a pressing need for an intellectual community to emerge that addresses the issues of the management and evaluation of systems undergoing change.

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Last Updated:  May 05, 2003